Millions who likely voted for Trump in 2020 want him barred from holding national office ever again

All throughout his presidential campaigns and controversial presidency, Donald Trump made fallacious claims about having done things no other president has ever done in the history of the United States. Well, now almost a month into his post-presidential life, a new poll reveals that the 74-year-old has finally hit a milestone no other sitting or former president has achieved after one term. A new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday shows that 56% of Americans are in favor of the Senate convicting Trump and barring him from holding national office ever again. Only 43% are opposed to such an action.

Released on the eve of former President Trump's impeachment trial in front of the Senate, the poll found that more Americans want him convicted than at any point during his first impeachment trial a year ago. The findings of the poll are more or less consistent with those of a Monmouth University poll taken at the end of January, which indicated that 57% of Americans want Trump barred from holding federal office while 52% want him convicted by the Senate. As CNN's Harry Enten points out, every single poll over the last month has shown that at least 56% of Americans believe Trump should be barred from holding or seeking federal office again.

This clear plurality does not bode well for Trump's hopes of a second term in office. In fact, if the numbers are any indication, even those who voted for him in the last presidential election appear to be rethinking their support for him. At no point last year in the polling between Trump and now-President Joe Biden did Biden ever see anywhere close to 56% support in the national average. This indicates that there are likely millions of Trump 2020 voters who now want the former president barred from holding federal office ever again.

Although the poll does reveal that about 80% of Republicans don't want Trump to be kept from running for or holding federal office, this is still a clear drop from last year when Trump won more than 90% of self-identified Republicans in last fall's election. "Overall, this type of opposition to a sitting or former president after one term is historic. No other president after one term in polling history ever had an unfavorable rating or disapproval rating north of 50%. On the much harsher being barred from office question, Trump is above that milestone," Enten explains.

Meanwhile, an average of 51% of Americans in live interview polls taken since January 20 are in favor of the Senate convicting Trump. A minority of 43% oppose this. Compared to Trump's first impeachment trial in 2020, this 8-point difference is significantly more than the 4 points between those supporting and opposing impeachment last year. No other president — except for Richard Nixon — has ever had a majority of Americans say he should be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. Even in Nixon's case, it was only weeks before his resignation that a clear majority believed he should be impeached and removed from office.

Despite the findings of these polls, it is unlikely that Trump will actually be convicted or barred from running for federal office. 80% of Republicans still support him when it comes to the Senate acquitting him, which although low, should be enough to get him through the impeachment trial unscathed. Republicans have 50 seats in the Senate and 67 votes are needed for conviction. However, Trump's likely acquittal will not be indicative of support among the larger electorate.