Post Roe v. Wade, data experts find women leading the surge in new voter registrations

Following the Supreme Court verdict overturning Roe v. Wade, a study finds that women outnumber men in the surge in voter registrations. Women have become the vast majority of newly registered voters in competitive states in the months since Roe was overturned, according to data compiled by Democratic political data and data services firm TargetSmart, with the numbers heavily favoring Democrats.

Since the decision on June 24, women represent more than 56% of newly registered voters in Pennsylvania, a swing state, with nearly two-thirds registering as Democrats and more than half under the age of 25. Up to 70% of new registrants are women in some states. In some states with competitive fall midterm elections, new female voters outnumber new male voters by double-digit margins, with women significantly outpacing male registrants in every state, reports Newsweek. 

Tom Bonier, the CEO of the data services company TargetSmart, shared the voter registration data in a tweet.

"We are seeing early signs of what could lead to a huge increase in women voting in November," Bonier wrote, announcing the findings. "These registration patterns closely resemble that of younger voters in '18 post-Parkland, which fueled the blue wave that year. This surge is young and female."

A poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 55% of voters consider abortion to be a "very important" issue when deciding how they will vote in the midterm elections in November, up from 46% in February, according to Axios. The other issue according to the survey is inflation, with 74% of voters considering it important, followed by gun violence, which 57% of voters thought is an important determinant for the November midterm elections. The number of women going to the polls surpassed the number of men by double-digit percentages in other key battleground states including Michigan, Ohio and Kansas—where voters recently rejected efforts to overturn abortion protections in the state constitution.

Executive Director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University Debbie Walsh told Newsweek that the decision was made when seeking office and was essentially off the table. "Filing deadlines have largely passed. But voting is still a powerful way for women to exercise their voice and this issue is energizing women, and they're registering as Democrats," she says.

Walsh added, "The thing about this decision is it strikes such a chord because it's taking away a right that women had for decades. And when people lose something they had, I think it's, even more, it has more of an impact, and in this case, can be even more motivating."

Whether the trend is significant will depend on how eager they are to vote and how many women there are compared to men. According to POLITICO, the apparent change in the election can be attributed to voters' attention on abortion rights, declining gas prices and what has been dubbed "the Donald Trump factor," according to CBS' election tracker. “Abortion is going to be extremely important,” Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said, adding that the issue is “about freedom.”

Approximately 54% of voters said they are "more likely" to consider a candidate's position on abortion as a result of Roe's downfall, while 3% said they are "less likely" to do so, according to Axios. According to the KFF survey, 61% of the populace wants their state to protect access to abortion, while 25% want their state to outlaw it. Considering inflation is an important factor too, KFF President and CEO Drew Altman said, "Lower-turnout midterm elections can be a game of inches, and abortion could make a difference, especially if gas prices continue to fall.”