NASA confirmed that the impact probability of the 'mansion-sized' asteroid colliding with Earth doubled.
The threat of an asteroid striking Earth, while rare, is a significant concern. If such an event were to occur, scientists and governments worldwide would need to take swift action to mitigate potential damage. Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson recently weighed in on an asteroid currently approaching Earth, urging people to pay attention. Posting on X (@neiltyson), Tyson shared an image of the asteroid and explained why it warrants concern.
"At the moment, mansion-sized Asteroid 2024-YR4 has a one in fifty chance of hitting Earth in the next eight years," Tyson wrote. "Now might be a bad time to reduce spending on Science. Just saying," he added. The NASA Asteroid Watch—that goes by @AsteroidWatch on X—took to the platform and shared, "While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on December 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known." The International Asteroid Warning Network will continue to monitor the asteroid with ground-based telescopes until April, after which it will be too faint to observe until June 2028, as per their website.
At the moment, mansion-sized Asteroid 2024-YR4 has a one-in-fifty chance of hitting Earth in the next eight years.
— Neil deGrasse Tyson (@neiltyson) February 15, 2025
Now might be a bad time to reduce spending on Science. Just sayin’. pic.twitter.com/hzmIjEJRBr
The James Webb Space Telescope will be used to determine the correct size of the Asteroid in March this year. Currently, it is believed to be around 130 to 300 feet across. The organization pointed out that the asteroid's impact probability might decrease and it could get removed from the watchlist, like many other asteroids or the probability could continue to rise after further observation. The asteroid could pass through the atmosphere at a speed of 38,000 mph and cause as much damage as 100 nuclear bombs, according to The Sun. The James Webb Space Telescope is observing a "near-Earth object" for the first time, as per the outlet.
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
"We cannot ignore this rock. It has the potential, the possibility, for being an emergency for planet Earth," astronomer Dr. David Whitehouse pointed out. "We might even have to consider the severe measures of sending up a nuclear weapon to the surface of this asteroid in order to deflect it further." Along with the size, the uncertainty of the position of the asteroid is also a big cause of concern for scientists. People are worried that the currently available methods to deflect an asteroid might not be developed enough in the next 7-8 years to be implemented successfully.
Interesting situation - if the probability remains this high then we will have to make a decision on preparing a deflection mission - which would be a good investment even if (as is most likely) we don’t need to use it this time. It’s as if the Universe has decided to do an… https://t.co/Leic2rdLaU
— Brian Cox (@ProfBrianCox) February 8, 2025
"They can do this. But you want as many years as possible. It’s a bit tight," Dr. Robin George Andrews, the author of "How To Kill An Asteroid" told the outlet. "Interesting situation - if the probability remains this high then we will have to make a decision on preparing a deflection mission - which would be a good investment even if (as is most likely) we don’t need to use it this time," Professor Brian Cox, Professor of Particle Physics at The University of Manchester and The Royal Society Professor for Public Engagement in Science wrote on X, where he goes by @ProfBrianCox. He added, "It’s as if the Universe has decided to do an experiment to see if Planet Earth is still capable of taking rational decisions!"